January 28, 2008

McCain Surges

The past two weeks have seen a huge popularity boost for Senator John McCain (R). He has surged to top of polls in many states, beat out Huckabee in South Carolina, and may very well beat Giuliani in Florida.

The conservative from Arizona has faced criticism from both the left and right wings, each claiming that McCain is too much of a Republican or Democrat. Still, his relatively moderate stances have attracted a large following. Huckabee is still my #1 candidate, but as more and more people join McCain, Huckabee will have a hard time keeping up.

And to those who reason that McCain may choose Huckabee as his VP: McCain already has the support of the right. The conservatives are desperate enough to vote for the Republican candidate anyway, nearly no matter who it is. Choosing a strong social conservative like Huckabee will only alienate the left and allow a liberal to beat him in the general election. Yet choosing someone more liberal than himself would also risk losing the hard right voters. Therefore, I expect him to pick a mild to moderate conservative, perhaps a minority such as black, hispanic, or female to work against Obama or Clinton.

The main issue for conservatives is that McCain is the only one who is seen as having a good chance of becoming President. Recent polls put him 0-1 percent above Obama and Clinton. Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, and Paul are each respectively worse.

-Apollo

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